The United States economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, reversing what had been a modest run of hiring gains and blindsiding forecasters who had penciled in growth of roughly 80,000 positions.
The disconnect shows up elsewhere in the data, too.
Gains in construction and manufacturing point the other way, toward continued investment in physical building and production capacity.
One data point cuts against that read: separate payroll figures from ADP, cited in Fortune's reporting on the July data, show workers who switched jobs entirely still commanded roughly 7% raises, the largest year-over-year gain in nearly a year.
Warsh's Fed, five months into a supply-side energy shock it did not create and cannot easily offset with interest-rate policy, is instead asking whether a softening labor market is enough reason to hold off on a hike that inflation data alone would otherwise justify.
The U.S. shed 23,000 jobs in July and revised away 103,000 more from prior months, even as unemployment fell for the wrong reason. Here's what it means for the Fed's September rate call.