Fed Chair Search Near End: Trump Narrows Field to Four Candidates, Decision Imminent

The Race Heats Up at Davos

President Donald Trump has whittled down the field to four candidates to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell and a decision is forthcoming, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said "My guess is the president will reach a decision maybe as soon as next week" during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The dramatic narrowing of candidates marks a critical juncture in one of the most consequential economic appointments of the Trump administration's second term.

The selection process has captivated financial markets and Washington insiders alike. The process started in September with 11 very strong candidates and is now down to four candidates. The president has personally met with all of them, and it's going to be his decision, Bessent emphasized, underscoring Trump's hands-on approach to this crucial decision.

Meet the Final Four Candidates

Trump has narrowed his shortlist to four candidates: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller and Rick Rieder. Each brings distinct perspectives and experience to the role.

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the likely choice to succeed Powell. Hassett, 63, is an economist who has served as director of the National Economic Council in the second Trump administration. However, recent developments may have complicated his path: Trump said he'd prefer to keep National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett in his position as top economic advisor, saying "I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth".

Kevin Warsh, former governor of the US Federal Reserve, and Hassett are the front-runners according to market predictions. After Trump's recent comments, traders on predictions market site Kalshi raised their bets to a 60% chance of Warsh getting the job, compared with just 16% for Hassett and 14% for Waller. Warsh is widely viewed by markets as the "independence candidate," hawkish on inflation, skeptical of political pressure, and institutionally orthodox.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller has also interviewed for the position. Governor Waller's name began circulating as a candidate given his departure from consensus voting on the Federal Open Market Committee earlier this year, advocating the more dovish route, which Trump said would be necessary to secure a nomination.

Rick Rieder, a BlackRock executive, is the remaining finalist to be interviewed. It could be a plus that Rieder, alone among the five remaining candidates, has never worked at the Fed, according to Treasury officials.

The Loyalty Litmus Test

Trump has made clear what he expects from his next Fed chair. As the race to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell heats up, President Donald Trump has issued a stark ultimatum to potential nominees: loyalty to his low interest-rate agenda is non-negotiable. The President demands loyalty to low rates.

One motivation for the candor is a bid to shift focus away from current chairman Jerome Powell, who has grated on the Oval Office by refusing to cut rates as fast as Trump might have liked. Trump continued his verbal assault of Powell, who he again called "too late" for failing to cut interest rates at a faster pace.

Powell's Term and the Timeline

Current Chair Jerome Powell's term expires in May 2026, and he has made it clear he will fulfill his obligation running the central bank. The president has indicated the decision will be made in early 2026, though Bessent's latest comments suggest an announcement could come even sooner—potentially at the Davos conference this week.

The high-stakes nature of this selection cannot be overstated. Trump for months has pressured the Fed to lower interest rates, and naming a successor to Jerome Powell would give the president his biggest chance yet to reshape the institution. The next Fed chair will oversee monetary policy that directly impacts inflation, employment, and economic growth for millions of Americans.

Market Implications and Senate Confirmation

Financial markets have been closely watching the selection process, with prediction markets shifting dramatically as Trump signals his preferences. As the former Fed governor appears to be for the first time the clear front-runner, analysts are reassessing the implications for monetary policy.

Whoever Trump selects will still face Senate confirmation. Some lawmakers on Capitol Hill said they would block the confirmation of Trump's Federal Reserve nominee until the legal matter is resolved, referring to ongoing investigative scrutiny of current Chair Powell.

The Unprecedented Selection Process

The White House has run a very public campaign for the nomination of the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent being open about how swiftly he would like to see a name chosen. This transparent approach contrasts sharply with historical precedent, where Fed chair selections have been handled with greater discretion.

As the week unfolds, all eyes remain on Davos and whether Trump will use the global stage to announce his historic choice. The decision could be announced as soon as next week, according to Bessent, concluding months of speculation and setting the stage for a new chapter in Federal Reserve leadership.