Ukraine Conflict Escalates: Hypersonic Missile Threats and Diplomatic Overtures

The conflict in Ukraine continues to see a complex interplay of escalating military actions and renewed diplomatic efforts. Recent reports indicate Russia’s deployment of a powerful, nuclear-capable hypersonic missile, allegedly with assistance from China, raising alarms among Ukraine’s European allies. Simultaneously, discussions of potential peace talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia are reportedly set to resume, albeit with significant hurdles to overcome.

China's Alleged Role in Russia's Hypersonic Missile Development

Concerns have been raised regarding China's reported support for Russia in the construction of a new, powerful hypersonic missile. According to a report by The Telegraph, this missile is capable of reaching speeds exceeding 8,000mph and is being built with specialised manufacturing machines and tools. These instruments are reportedly part of over £7 billion worth of technology transferred from China to Russia. The missile, known as the Oreshnik, has been used twice in Ukraine this year, most recently striking a target in Lviv, approximately 40 miles from the Polish border, a NATO member state. Kyiv's European allies have described the use of this missile as an attempt to intimidate them from continuing their support for Ukraine. Military analyst Victoria Taylor highlighted the Oreshnik missile as an "unpredictable beast" after the recent strike, noting its theoretical range of up to 5,500 kilometres places much of Europe within reach.

Civilian Toll and Zelenskyy's Vow to Respond

The human cost of the ongoing conflict was tragically underscored by a recent Russian drone and missile strike near Kyiv. A couple was killed in the attack, leaving behind a four-year-old daughter who survived. A neighbour and journalist, Marian Kushnir, recounted carrying the child who began to "shake violently" and cry "very hard" after the incident. Kushnir expressed profound pain, stating that in "10 years of war, I had never had such feelings before." In response to this and other attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to retaliate. In Zaporizhzhia, another frontline city, a Russian missile and drone attack left a significant crater, injured six people, and damaged at least 12 residential buildings, causing partial power outages.

Diplomatic Manoeuvres: Putin's Syria Visit and Upcoming Peace Talks

Amidst the ongoing conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Syrian President Ahmad al Sharaa in Moscow. This second meeting in less than four months underscores Russia's efforts to secure its military bases in Syria, which include vital naval and air outposts critical for maintaining Russia's presence in the Mediterranean outside the former Soviet Union. Putin praised al Sharaa's role in developing Russian-Syrian relations and his efforts to restore Syria's territorial integrity. Concurrently, reports from Russia's Interfax news agency, citing the Kremlin, indicate that trilateral peace negotiations involving Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington are set to resume in Abu Dhabi. US officials noted progress in the initial round of talks last weekend, with Zelenskyy stating that a document on security guarantees for Ukraine was "100% ready" for signing. However, conflicting reports have emerged regarding the terms of a potential peace deal, with a Financial Times report suggesting the Trump administration might link US security guarantees to Ukraine surrendering the Donbas region, a claim a US source speaking to Reuters denied as inaccurate. The Kremlin also stated any meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy would need to be "well prepared and results-focused," while a US news site Axios claimed the two leaders were "very close" to arranging a meeting following the Abu Dhabi talks.

The Strategic Importance of Ukraine's 'Fortress Cities'

On the ground, the strategic importance of cities like Kostyantynivka to Ukraine's defence cannot be overstated. It is one of four "fortress" cities in the Donetsk region, alongside Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka. These cities form a crucial 50 to 60km "belt" of strong fortifications against anticipated Russian advances. Ukrainian forces are actively working to protect the roads in and out of these strategically vital locations, employing netting to guard against drone attacks. Losing these positions would severely limit Ukraine's ability to withdraw to comparable defensive lines further west.

The Imperative of Tangible Security Guarantees for Ukraine

Military analyst Professor Michael Clarke has emphasised that "words will not cut it" when it comes to security guarantees for Ukraine after the war. Kyiv views US security guarantees as vital for any settlement. Despite positive progress reported from the Abu Dhabi talks and US President Donald Trump's remarks about "very good things happening," Clarke remains cautious. He pointed out that Ukraine has received "solemn security guarantees twice in 20 years that were meaningless" when Russia attacked in 2014 and again in 2022. He argues that for Ukraine to truly trust such guarantees, the West, particularly the US, would need to be prepared to "sit in Ukraine" as a reassurance force after the conflict. An anonymous source told Reuters that Washington wants Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia before receiving security guarantees, a condition Clarke described as foolish, stating, "The Ukrainians are not that stupid." Clarke also noted that while Trump can "say what he likes," fewer people believe him now than before Sky News.